The American Maverick Predictor
Final 2014 U.S. Senate Election Forecast
This is the final prediction for the 2014 U.S. Senate battle. First, let's review the percentage chance for Republicans or Democrats to win control of a majority of Senate seats...
86% Chance the Republicans will control the majority of the U.S. Senate
14% Chance the Democrats will control the majority of the U.S. Senate
TAM Predictor officially forecasts the Republicans will win control of the U.S. Senate. The only caveat is the strong possibility of run-off elections in Louisiana and Georgia. Should the run-offs occur, the number of seats may fluctuate by one or two seats. With Louisiana's run-off in December and Georgia in early January, the balance of power may not be decided until these run-offs are final.
Now, let's make the call on the number of seats Republicans will control. Polling indicates Republicans definitely have an edge within the closing days of the election. Several close elections have seen a slight favor to practically all Republican candidates. Hence, there is definite momentum heading to Election Day for the Grand Old Party.
TAM Predictor officially forecasts Republicans will win 53 seats in the U.S. Senate. With the Democrats holding onto 47 seats. Latest polling indicates Republicans will most likely capture 52 to 54 seats.
And, finally, TAM Predictor officially forecasts the following Top 10 Senate Races. Predicted winner indicated by highlight....
Our forecast is calculated from solid sources. We aggregate data from the most recent polls in key states and track trends that indicate strength/weakness of a candidate. One key component is we do not use old data that can distort breaking trends. Sources used for the 2014 Senate election include: Real Clear Politics, New York Times, WaPo Election Lab, Cook Political Report, and the famed, 538 Election Model.
Top 10 Key Senate Races
*Incumbent | % Chance of Victory for Party Candidate | +Potential Run-off
Alaska Begich* vs Sullivan 62% Republican
Arkansas Pryor* vs Cotton 95% Republican
Colorado Udall* vs Gardner 78% Republican
Georgia+ Nunn vs Perdue 52% Republican
Iowa Braley vs Ernst 74% Republican
Kansas Orman vs Roberts* 51% Republican
Louisiana+ Landrieu* vs Cassidy 80% Republican
North Carolina Hagan* vs Tillis 71% Democrat
The TAM Predictor is a election prediction feature for upcoming elections, primaries, caucuses, etc. Polling data is used to determine an aggregate score to select a candidates outcome. The TAM Predictor only uses the most current polling data. This methodology is key in identifying trends for candidates. The TAM Predictor has a 94% forecast accuracy.