Monday, November 3, 2014

TAM PREDICTOR: FINAL CALL FOR 2014 U.S. SENATE RACE

The American Maverick Predictor
Final 2014 U.S. Senate Election Forecast




This is the final prediction for the 2014 U.S. Senate battle.  First, let's review the percentage chance for Republicans or Democrats to win control of a majority of Senate seats...

86% Chance the Republicans will control the majority of the U.S. Senate
14% Chance the Democrats will control the majority of the U.S. Senate

TAM Predictor officially forecasts the Republicans will win control of the U.S. Senate.  The only caveat is the strong possibility of run-off elections in Louisiana and Georgia.  Should the run-offs occur, the number of seats may fluctuate by one or two seats.  With Louisiana's run-off in December and Georgia in early January, the balance of power may not be decided until these run-offs are final.

Now, let's make the call on the number of seats Republicans will control.  Polling indicates Republicans definitely have an edge within the closing days of the election.  Several close elections have seen a slight favor to practically all Republican candidates.  Hence, there is definite momentum heading to Election Day for the Grand Old Party.

TAM Predictor officially forecasts Republicans will win 53 seats in the U.S. Senate.  With the Democrats holding onto 47 seats.  Latest polling indicates Republicans will most likely capture 52 to 54 seats.

And, finally, TAM Predictor officially forecasts the following Top 10 Senate Races.  Predicted winner indicated by highlight....

Top 10 Key Senate Races
 *Incumbent | % Chance of Victory for Party Candidate | +Potential Run-off

                         Alaska                           Begich* vs Sullivan         62% Republican
                         Arkansas                       Pryor* vs Cotton             95% Republican
                         Colorado                       Udall* vs Gardner           78% Republican
                         Georgia+                       Nunn vs Perdue              52% Republican
                         Iowa                              Braley vs Ernst               74% Republican
                         Kansas                          Orman vs Roberts*          51% Republican
                         Louisiana+                    Landrieu* vs Cassidy       80% Republican
                         North Carolina              Hagan* vs Tillis               71% Democrat
                         New Hampshire            Shaheen* vs Brown         78% Democrat
                         Virginia                        Warner* vs Gillespie        88% Democrat



The TAM Predictor is a election prediction feature for upcoming elections, primaries, caucuses, etc.  Polling data is used to determine an aggregate score to select a candidates outcome.  The TAM Predictor only uses the most current polling data.  This methodology is key in identifying trends for candidates.  The TAM Predictor has a 94% forecast accuracy.

Our forecast is calculated from solid sources.  We aggregate data from the most recent polls in key states and track trends that indicate strength/weakness of a candidate.  One key component is we do not use old data that can distort breaking trends.  Sources used for the 2014 Senate election include:  Real Clear Politics, New York Times, WaPo Election Lab, Cook Political Report, and the famed, 538 Election Model.

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