As pundits pontificate their predictions for who will control the United States Senate, many wonder if polling tells the whole story. Well, when you look at the broader picture of the state of the country and issues in respective states, there are three key factors that will give the Republicans the edge for victory.
Polling numbers from battleground states provide a snapshot of how the candidates are connecting with voters. When you look at many of the key races for Senate, most of the vital Senate seats are now within the margin of error, Some examples of races now in limbo with polling stats: North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia, Alaska, Louisiana, Arkansas, Kansas and a few others. These Senate races are clear toss up states according to most polling data.
So, what could possibly give the Republicans an advantage on November 4th?
Three key factors are bolstering the GOP as we head to Election Day. Including: Obama's high negative ratings, down ballot candidates performance and individuals impacted by the left.
Obama's High Negatives. Obama now has the lowest Presidential approval rating in the modern era. Lower than George W. Bush and equal to the term of Jimmy Carter. American's have had it with this administration. Two poll results released recently indicate Obama's approval has fallen to 39% among voters. (Reuters/Ipsos and Fox News) The last time Obama had a 50% approval rating was May of 2013.
In key Senate battleground states, his negative numbers will directly impact Democrat candidates. And, for those Democrat incumbents like Landrieu, Hagan, Udall and others, the retribution of the voters will be amplified on Election Day. Democrat candidates have the stigma and, for most, a voting record in support of Obamacare, immigration amnesty, trillions in national debt, and anti-gun legislation.
Battleground Down Ballot Candidates. For elections, many times the top of the ticket, (like a popular Presidential or Senate candidate), can help party candidates that are down ticket, (like a Congressman or Governor), bring out their base of voters for victory. This can happen the opposite way as well. For instance, a state that has a popular Republican running for Governor can help bolster turn out for the Republican Senate candidate. An example is Iowa. Popular Republican, incumbent Governor Terry Branstad has a firm lead in polling over the Democrat in Iowa. The voters who are passionate about Branstad will more than likely vote for Joni Ernst who is on the statewide ballot. Thus, giving Ernst a boost on Election Day. There are several other scenarios where other Republican candidates can reinforce statewide turnout that will favor the GOP Senate candidate.
Citizens Negatively Impacted by the Left. It is one thing to talk about how Obama's policies have hurt individuals. It is another to be the American that was directly affected. Do not forget the million Americans that had their health care insurance cancelled due to Obamacare. Do not forget the tens of millions of Americans now paying twice as much for health care. Do not forget the businessmen/women who have been taxed and regulated out of business. Do not forget the hundreds of thousands of "twenty somethings" that campaigned for Obama's hope and change in 2008. And, now, are forced to live with their folks since they cannot find a decent job. Enduring the negative impact of big government is a real motivator for voters. This will be the dark horse factor that may turn the tide against the Democrats at the ballot box.
When you consider this is the first time voters will have a chance to push back against Obama, Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi since 2012, this election looks a whole lot more promising.
Now is the time to stand tall for America, our Constitution and founding principles. With a solid turnout of the right on Election Day, we can send a message and candidate to Washington that we're tired of Barack and Harry and we're not going to take it anymore.