Tuesday, October 28, 2014

TAM PREDICTOR: WEEKLY U.S. SENATE BATTLE FORECAST

This is the October 29-Nov 2, weekly update for The American Maverick (TAM) Predictor's latest forecast for the battle for control of the United States Senate. 

Quick trend run down for this week...  Trouble emerges for Republicans in Georgia, several key races tighten to toss-up, and a few Dems put some distance from GOP competitors.  Overall, Republicans are on track to take control of the U.S. Senate with under 7 days left till Election Day.


With Election Day approaching, the TAM Predictor will provide weekly updates about trends regarding control of the Senate as well as progress of the top 10 races that will most likely determine the balance of power.  A final call of the election will be published prior to Election Day, November 4th.


The American Maverick Predictor
2014 U.S. Senate Election Weekly Forecast
Week of October 29th | 9 Days Till the Election

65% Chance the Republicans will control the majority of the U.S. Senate
35% Chance the Democrats will control the majority of the U.S. Senate

Projected Senate Seat Trend as of October 29, 2014
Republican Seats 53 | Democrat Seats 47


Top 10 Key Senate Races to Watch
 *Incumbent | % Chance of Victory for Party Candidate

                         Alaska                           Begich* vs Sullivan         69% Republican
                         Arkansas                       Pryor* vs Cotton             84% Republican
                         Colorado                       Udall* vs Gardner           75% Republican
                         Georgia                         Nunn vs Perdue              Toss-up
                         Iowa                              Braley vs Ernst               65% Republican
                         Kansas                          Orman vs Roberts*          Toss-up
                         Louisiana                      Landrieu* vs Cassidy       80% Republican
                         North Carolina              Hagan* vs Tillis               62% Democrat
                         New Hampshire            Shaheen* vs Brown         78% Democrat
                         Virginia                        Warner* vs Gillespie        86% Democrat

The TAM Predictor is a election prediction feature for upcoming elections, primaries, caucuses, etc.  Polling data is used to determine an aggregate score to select a candidates outcome.  The TAM Predictor only uses the most current polling data.  This methodology is key in identifying trends for candidates.  The TAM Predictor has a 94% forecast accuracy.

Our forecast is calculated from solid sources.  We aggregate data from the most recent polls in key states and track trends that indicate strength/weakness of a candidate.  One key component is we do not use old data that can distort breaking trends.  Sources used for the 2014 Senate election include:  Real Clear Politics, New York Times, WaPo Election Lab, Cook Political Report, and the famed, 538 Election Model.

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