Tuesday, October 21, 2014

TAM PREDICTOR: WEEKLY U.S. SENATE BATTLE FORECAST

This is the October 21-28, weekly update for The American Maverick (TAM) Predictor's latest forecast for the battle for control of the United States Senate. 

Quick trend run down for this week...  Tillis gains ground on Hagan in Carolina, Roberts equalizes Orman in Kansas, and Georgia appears at risk for the Republicans.  Overall, Republicans are on track to take control of the U.S. Senate with under 13 days left till Election Day.


The American Maverick Predictor
2014 U.S. Senate Election Weekly Forecast
Week of October 21st | 13 Days Till the Election

67% Chance the Republicans will control the majority of the U.S. Senate
33% Chance the Democrats will control the majority of the U.S. Senate

Projected Senate Seat Trend as of October 21, 2014
Republican Seats 52 | Democrat Seats 48


Top 10 Key Senate Races to Watch
 *Incumbent | % Chance of Victory for Party Candidate

                         Alaska                           Begich* vs Sullivan         77% Republican
                         Arkansas                       Pryor* vs Cotton             79% Republican
                         Colorado                       Udall* vs Gardner           69% Republican
                         Georgia                         Nunn vs Perdue              Toss-up
                         Iowa                              Braley vs Ernst               64% Republican
                         Kansas                          Orman vs Roberts*          52% Independent
                         Louisiana                      Landrieu* vs Cassidy       78% Republican
                         North Carolina              Hagan* vs Tillis               65% Democrat
                         New Hampshire            Shaheen* vs Brown         79% Democrat
                         Virginia                        Warner* vs Gillespie        88% Democrat


The TAM Predictor is a election prediction feature for upcoming elections, primaries, caucuses, etc.  Polling data is used to determine an aggregate score to select a candidates outcome.  The TAM Predictor only uses the most current polling data.  This methodology is key in identifying trends for candidates.  The TAM Predictor has a 94% forecast accuracy.

With Election Day approaching, the TAM Predictor will provide weekly updates about trends regarding control of the Senate as well as progress of the top 10 races that will most likely determine the balance of power.  A final call of the election will be published prior to Election Day, November 4th.

Our forecast is calculated from solid sources.  We aggregate data from the most recent polls in key states, track trends that indicate strength/weakness of a candidate, and build in intangibles, where appropriate.  One key component is we do not use old data that can distort breaking trends.  Sources used for the 2014 Senate election include:  Real Clear Politics, New York Times, WaPo Election Lab, Cook Political Report, and the famed, 538 Election Model.

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