Tuesday, October 14, 2014


This is the October 14-21, weekly update for The American Maverick (TAM) Predictor's latest forecast for the battle for control of the United States Senate. 

Quick trend run down for this week...  Orman continues slight lead over incumbent Roberts in Kansas,  Landrieu losing in Louisiana, race tightening in North Carolina.  Overall, Republicans are on track to take control of the U.S. Senate with under 20 days left till Election Day.

The American Maverick Predictor
2014 U.S. Senate Election Weekly Forecast
Week of October 14th | 20 Days Till the Election

63% Chance the Republicans will control the majority of the U.S. Senate
37% Chance the Democrats will control the majority of the U.S. Senate

Projected Senate Seat Trend as of October 14, 2014
Republican Seats 52 | Democrat Seats 48

Top 10 Key Senate Races to Watch
 *Incumbent | % Chance of Victory for Party Candidate

                         Alaska                           Begich* vs Sullivan         75% Republican
                         Arkansas                       Pryor* vs Cotton             75% Republican
                         Colorado                       Udall* vs Gardner           64% Republican
                         Georgia                         Nunn vs Perdue              71% Republican
                         Iowa                              Braley vs Ernst               63% Republican
                         Kansas                          Orman vs Roberts*          60% Independent
                         Louisiana                      Landrieu* vs Cassidy       77% Republican
                         North Carolina              Hagan* vs Tillis               67% Democrat
                         New Hampshire            Shaheen* vs Brown         82% Democrat
                         Virginia                        Warner* vs Gillespie        88% Democrat

With Election Day approaching, the TAM Predictor will provide weekly updates about trends regarding control of the Senate as well as progress of the top 10 races that will most likely determine the balance of power.  A final call of the election will be published prior to Election Day, November 4th.

Our forecast is calculated from solid sources.  We aggregate data from the most recent polls in key states, track trends that indicate strength/weakness of a candidate, and build in intangibles, where appropriate.  One key component is we do not use old data that can distort breaking trends.  Sources used for the 2014 Senate election include:  Real Clear Politics, New York Times, WaPo Election Lab, Cook Political Report, and the famed, 538 Election Model.

The TAM Predictor is a election prediction feature for upcoming elections, primaries, caucuses, etc.  Polling data is used to determine an aggregate score to select a candidates outcome.  The TAM Predictor only uses the most current polling data.  This methodology is key in identifying trends for candidates.  The TAM Predictor has a 94% forecast accuracy.

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The commentary provided on TheAmericanMaverick.com and "The American Maverick Radio Show" are the remarks on behalf of Maverick Media and personal expression of Flint Engleman. In no way, are these statements on behalf of any other organization or political entity.

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