As Election Day draws near, Virginia Republican Ed Gillespie continues a strong ground game versus liberal incumbent Mark Warner. The question, will Gillespie's campaign benefit from a ripe political environment that opposes the policies of Barack Obama?
Ed Gillespie is working hard in Virginia. From January on, Ed has been on the ground in every corner of the Commonwealth listening and talking to Virginians. Ed has worked diligently to raise a war chest of campaign cash to combat millionaire Mark Warner. He achieved victory in June as the U.S. Senate nominee at the Republican Party of Virginia Convention. His character and commitment to the Virginia way was evident during his debates with Warner. And, his supporters are energized to vote for him on November 4th.
With high negatives against Obama, perhaps this is prime time to win. The policies of Obama have had a chilling effect on our country. Obamacare caused medical premiums to spike and over 450,000 Virginians have lost their medical insurance. The job market is dry. Several rural areas of Virginia have double digit unemployment. And, our future seems bleak with our national debt now $18 Trillion.
Mark Warner's campaign is lackluster. The energy Warner enjoyed six years ago has almost evaporated. Warner's votes for Obamacare, $7 Trillion in new debt, and the nation's largest tax increase, are hardly the policies to rally voters Election Day.
There is a pathway for victory for Ed Gillespie. Voter turn out, an energized voter base and other Republican candidates may be the right formula for victory. A cursory analysis of the political state of the Commonwealth produces several key factors to boost Gillespie's bid. Including:
- Coat tail effect of strong Republican Congressional candidates. Congressional candidates like Barbara Comstock and Dave Brat have tremendous momentum and positive voter sentiment for this year's election. Their voters are highly likely to cast their ballot for fellow Republican Ed Gillespie.
- Weak Democrat candidates. Many new Democrats are running embarrassing campaigns in the Commonwealth. Foust in Northern Virginia and Lawrence Gaughan in the 5th District are two small examples of how not to run for Congress. Hence, there is no enthusiasm behind these weak Democrats for Warner to benefit from on the ballot.
- Strong turnout of voters in red Virginia. This is perhaps the big question mark for Gillespie. If Republicans show up, the conservatives in rural Virginia turn out, and Ed captures a portion of the independent vote, he will definitely emerge as the winner. Also, consider most of Northern Virginia will be backing Republican Comstock and a large segment of the Richmond metro area will be backing Dave Brat. Taking voters away in Northern Virginia and Richmond is a potential death blow to Mark Warner.