Tuesday, September 30, 2014

TAM PREDICTOR RETURNS FOR 2014 U.S. SENATE BATTLE

The American Maverick (TAM) Predictor returns to forecast the battle for control of the United States Senate.  The TAM Predictor has a known accuracy of 94% for calling election results since 2012.

The big question... Will the American voter choose to continue with Harry Reid and the Democrats in control of the Senate.  Or, will there be a mid-term shake up with the Republicans taking the Senate lead for the last two years of the Obama Presidency?

With Election Day approaching, the TAM Predictor will provide weekly updates about trends regarding control of the Senate as well as progress of the top 10 races that will most likely determine the balance of power.  A final call of the election will be published prior to Election Day, November 4th.

Our forecast is calculated from solid sources.  We aggregate data from the most recent polls in key states, track trends that indicate strength/weakness of a candidate, and build in intangibles, where appropriate.  One key component is we do not use old data that can distort breaking trends.  Sources used for the 2014 Senate election include:  Real Clear Politics, New York Times, WaPo Election Lab, Cook Political Report, and the famed, 538 Election Model.


The American Maverick Predictor
2014 U.S. Senate Election Weekly Forecast
Week of September 28th | 36 Days Till the Election

64% Chance the Republicans will control the majority of the U.S. Senate
36% Chance the Democrats will control the majority of the U.S. Senate

Projected Senate Seat Trend as of September 28, 2014
Republican Seats 52 | Democrat Seats 48

Top 10 Key Senate Races to Watch
 *Incumbent | % Chance of Victory for Party Candidate

                         Alaska                           Begich* vs Sullivan         68% Republican
                         Arkansas                       Pryor* vs Cotton             73% Republican
                         Colorado                       Udall* vs Gardner           61% Republican
                         Georgia                         Nunn vs Perdue              70% Republican
                         Iowa                              Braley vs Ernst               60% Republican
                         Kansas                          Orman vs Roberts*          58% Republican
                         Louisiana                      Landrieu* vs Cassidy       58% Republican
                         North Carolina              Hagan* vs Tillis               54% Democrat
                         New Hampshire            Shaheen* vs Brown         69% Democrat
                         Virginia                        Warner* vs Gillespie        80% Democrat

The TAM Predictor is a election prediction feature for upcoming elections, primaries, caucuses, etc.  Polling data is used to determine an aggregate score to select a candidates outcome.  The TAM Predictor only uses the most current polling data.  This methodology is key in identifying trends for candidates.  The TAM Predictor has a 94% forecast accuracy.

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