This is it! The final projection by The American Maverick (TAM) Predictor for 2012. Polling is tight in most all battleground states presenting a challenge to the TAM Predictor's 94% accuracy in forecasting elections.
The American Maverick (TAM) Predictor aggregates hard data from trusted sources to reach a decision for elections and primaries. Polling information used is from polling firms with a history of not skewing their voter samples. Also, TAM only uses polling data from polls conducted within the last 36 hours. In addition, variables such as voter intensity and state by state issues (Defense cuts, unemployment, etc.)
Here we go...
First of all, recognize the economic and fiscal negatives that take away from Barack Obama's base from his election in 2008. Including 8% unemployment, bankruptcy, foreclosure, etc.
Secondly, note how Barack has alienated large percentages of voters that supported him in 2008. His position change on gay marriage pushed away evangelical blacks. Obamacare subverted the Catholic church's position on birth control. And his disrespect for Israel and Benjamin Netanyaho has moved away Jewish voters.
Third, note the tide of the electorate. Voter intensity is a key measure of if your ability to have your voters show up and cast their vote. The energy and intensity are clearly on the side of Mitt Romney. Obama's voters have a pulse, but that's about it. Romney has been packing massive rallies nationwide of 10,000-20,000+ for months. Obama has struggled to fill some venues for some time.
Fourth, intangibles. Many have spoken about the Obama ground game. Yet, Romney has had a great get out the vote effort for months. Plus, Romney has been supported by efforts from many grassroots groups such as Americans for Prosperity, the Tea Party, NRA, and others.
Now the call...
America, this is one heck of a nail biter. Extremely close or tied polling in all key battleground states makes this call one for the ages.
The American Maverick Predictor selects Mitt Romney to win the Presidency. Electoral count for Romney will be 271 with Obama having 267. Yes, this is a razor thin projection with 270 electoral votes necessary to win.
Here's the breakdown:
- We will know early how Romney's victory is going. He must win East coast battleground states Virginia and Florida. If he can take New Hampshire this is very good for other victory scenarios.
- TAM Predictor calls for a scenario without Ohio. In order for Romney to capture 270 electoral votes, he must take also win Wisconsin and Colorado.
- Obama is likely to capture toss up states like Nevada and Iowa.
- What about other states like Pennsylvania? If Romney takes PA or Michigan, this will give him even more options to win without Ohio.
Here's the official TAM Predictor Electoral map with Mitt Romney winning with 271 electoral votes.