The American Maverick (TAM) Blog has a noted record of predicting primary and election results. The TAM Predictor is our 'crystal ball' of forecasting eminent elections. To date the TAM Predictor is 94% accurate in selecting the actual winner.
Here's a look at how things are shaping up as we are about a week out from the big election...
ROMNEY versus OBAMA
Current assessment>> The trend for momentum and voter intensity remain in favor of Mitt Romney. This has been a constant since the first Presidential debate. Currently, Barack Obama holds a lead in Electoral votes according to current polling. However, there are a significant battleground states that are very close in polling. A total of about 135 Electoral votes are in these battleground states. With 270 Electoral votes needed to win, a smaller group of states including Ohio, Colorado, New Hampshire, Iowa, and Wisconsin will likely be the states that will make or break the outcome.
Current projection>> As of today's (10/27) current state by state polling, the TAM Predictor forecasts a close win by Mitt Romney. Romney with 271 Electoral votes and Obama with 267. This prediction includes a path for Romney winning without Ohio.
The TAM Predictor will make our final, formal Presidential election forecast on Monday, November 3rd.
The TAM Predictor uses a specific methodology for forecasting election results. Similar to the RCP average of state polls. However, the TAM Predictor final projection only uses polling data within 36-48 hours prior to Election Day. This methodology shows the most current trends or momentum for a particular candidate. Whereas, RCP uses data that may average in stale data from as much as a week to ten days. The TAM Predictor has a 94% accuracy rating.