Saturday, October 27, 2012

THE AMERICAN MAVERICK PREDICTOR RE-EMERGES FOR ELECTION DAY

TAM PREDICTOR
The American Maverick (TAM) Blog has a noted record of predicting primary and election results.  The TAM Predictor is our 'crystal ball' of forecasting eminent elections.  To date the TAM Predictor is 94% accurate in selecting the actual winner.

Here's a look at how things are shaping up as we are about a week out from the big election...

ROMNEY versus OBAMA

Current assessment>>  The trend for momentum and voter intensity remain in favor of Mitt Romney.  This has been a constant since the first Presidential debate.  Currently, Barack Obama holds a lead in Electoral votes according to current polling.  However, there are a significant battleground states that are very close in polling.  A total of about 135 Electoral votes are in these battleground states.  With 270 Electoral votes needed to win, a smaller group of states including Ohio, Colorado, New Hampshire, Iowa, and Wisconsin will likely be the states that will make or break the outcome.  

Current projection>> As of today's (10/27) current state by state polling, the TAM Predictor forecasts a close win by Mitt Romney.  Romney with 271 Electoral votes and Obama with 267.  This prediction includes a path for Romney winning without Ohio.

The TAM Predictor will make our final, formal Presidential election forecast on Monday, November 3rd.

The TAM Predictor uses a specific methodology for forecasting election results.  Similar to the RCP average of state polls.  However, the TAM Predictor final projection only uses polling data within 36-48 hours prior to Election Day.   This methodology shows the most current trends or momentum for a particular candidate.  Whereas, RCP uses data that may average in stale data from as much as a week to ten days.  The TAM Predictor has a 94% accuracy rating.

AMERICAN MAVERICK COMMENTARY DISCLAIMER...

The commentary provided on TheAmericanMaverick.com and "The American Maverick Radio Show" are the remarks on behalf of Maverick Media and personal expression of Flint Engleman. In no way, are these statements on behalf of any other organization or political entity.

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