Sunday, October 21, 2012


Why Wisconsin matters to the Romney for President campaign may be the best way to title this scenario.   This is a look at how Election Day may play out according to Electoral votes based on current polling and key battleground

Here's the core of the matter, Ohio.  Many pundits say no one can win the Presidency without Ohio.  But, is there an alternate path to victory for Mitt Romney?  It is a bit more edgy route, but I say yes.  Ohio is a key tipping point.  Yet, with the surge of Romney in many battleground and other states, the premise of a different path is promising.
RED=Romney  BLUE=Obama YELLOW=Toss up
Most of the states are locked in with who they will select.  States like California, Illinois, New York, Maryland and Delaware have consistently polled for Obama.  Likewise theses states have long been solid red for Romney, including: Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas, Kansas and others.

Remember, a candidate must earn 270 Electoral votes to win.  As of today's poll numbers it will be close.  So, here we go.

There are eleven core battleground states in play.  Including: Florida, Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.  

For the sake of this scenario, let's concede Pennsylvania, Nevada and Michigan to progressive Obama.   They would be great wins, but are distant possibilities due to the limited time remaining.  Considering current polling and this scenario, let's also concede beloved Ohio.

How can Romney win enough Electoral votes without winning Ohio?  Romney is surging in toss up states including: Virginia, Florida, New Hampshire, and Colorado.  He is breaking about even in Wisconsin.  Winning all of these battleground states will put Romney just over the top with 271 Electoral votes.  Close, but a win is a win.

On Wisconsin!  Yes, the battleground state and home of the modern day progressive movement is a key component to the overall win.  How can this state bring it home for Mitt Romney?  The answer is Scott Walker, Paul Ryan and a seasoned ground game.  Wisconsin Governor, Scott Walker (R), has just won a recall election with more votes than his original election.  All this amidst a bitter contest by unions and progressives campaigning to stop Walker.  Walker had a great message, but a lot of help.  Americans for Prosperity and the Tea Party took a key role in victory for Republican Walker.  So they know the state well and have current voter data vital to helping Romney win.  Lastly, it's Republican Vice-Presidential candidate, Congressman Paul Ryan's, home state.  Ryan's constituents are quite to the left on most issues, yet they have been re-electing the Congressman for years.  Another helpful component is money.  RNC Chair Reince Preibus is also a native of Wisconsin.  He has the resources and purse strings to secure Wisconsin for Romney/Ryan.

Yes, this scenario has more of an 'edge of your seat' feel, but based on polling and Electoral count, victory does have a back door.  Let's work to take Ohio, so this path is not necessary.  


The commentary provided on and "The American Maverick Radio Show" are the remarks on behalf of Maverick Media and personal expression of Flint Engleman. In no way, are these statements on behalf of any other organization or political entity.

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