Following the swing in electoral vote projections indicates shifting sentiment for Presidential contenders. The trend is making a slow, but strong transition that the Romney/Ryan ticket is on the way towards victory. However, there are still 8 weeks left to go.
For reference point, I prefer to use Real Clear Politics maps to have a quick look at how trends are flowing. However, I also have found sound credence in Karl Rove's analysis and forecasting. When it comes to crunching numbers and delivering a clear, timely picture of the campaign, Rove invariably hits the mark.
What is showing is a steady decline in the number of states that were once strong or leaning for Obama/Biden. (Indicated as dark or light blue) You now see states that were once considered safe states for Obama, now at risk. Romney/Ryan states are dark or light red for strong or leaning voter polling. First, take a look back at what the Rove Electoral map at the point when Santorum dropped out of the primary. Leaving Mitt Romney as the presumed candidate.
April 25, 2012 Rove Electoral Map
Now. let's look at the most recent Rove Electoral Map preceding the RNC Convention. A couple of things to note.
- Notice the number of strong (dark blue) and leaning states (light blue) states have decreased.
- The number of states that were going Obama are now toss up states or there % in favor of Obama has dropped.
- States that were strong or leaning Romney have increased % and/or now are strong for Romney.
One big comparison point is the impact of the selection of Paul Ryan of Wisconsin for Romney's Vice-President. This has thrown once safe Obama states in the Midwest as toss up states or lowered polling numbers for Obama.
Take a look at this current map and compare to the older map above. Compare and contrast. You'll see some encouraging trends for Romney/Ryan.
August 27, 2012 Rove Electoral Map
The current map indicates strengthening for Romney/Ryan in the South, and weakening for Obama/Biden in multiple states. Especially, as mentioned, in the Midwest where the Paul Ryan impact is trending more states as toss ups.
Overall, based on the tally of Electoral votes, if the election were held today, Barack Obama would capture the win. However, the trend indicates there is growing strength for the Romney/Ryan ticket. It will be very interesting to do another comparison about a week after the RNC and DNC Conventions are over.
This map underscores the need for grassroots supporters of Romney/Ryan to continue to mobilize. Turnout will be key to securing a win to take back the White House and U.S. Senate on November 6.