Sunday, May 20, 2012


The Republican nomination now seems to be right around the corner for front runner Mitt Romney.  His delegate count is nearing the required number of 1,144 to secure the Republican nomination for President.

A quick look at the GOP delegate count shows Romney on the verge of clinching the nomination.  Currently, the count stands:  Romney 989, Santorum 264, Gingrich 141 and Ron Paul 104.  Running the numbers, Romney only needs 155 to take the nomination.

Upcoming primaries will put Romney over the top.  On May 22, Kentucky and Arkansas will offer a total of 80 delegates.  And, on May 29, Texas' primary boasts 155 delegates.  Of the three primaries, a grand total of 235 delegates are available.  

The American Maverick Predictor (TAM) forecasts Mitt Romney to win the Republican nomination on May 29.  Romney only needs 155 delegates to earn the nomination with 235 delegates available in three primary states.  Since all three GOP challengers have suspended their campaigns, Romney has been trending to take an average of 67% of delegates.  This metric puts him just over the top in Texas.

The only bogey out there is that Texas is Congressman Ron Paul's home state.  Should Texas voters show up in mass in support of their home state man, then this could take Romney's nomination a little farther.  However, the California primary with a whopping 172 delegates is right around the corner on June 5.

The TAM Predictor is a election prediction feature for upcoming elections, primaries, caucuses, etc.  Real polling data is used to determine an aggregate score to select a candidate's outcome.  The TAM (The American Maverick) Predictor only uses polling data produced within 36 hours of the election.  Data sources may include:  Rasmussen, Real Clear Politics, PPP, Quinnipiac, Gallup, Survey USA, and others.  This methodology is key in identifying momentum of a candidate in the final days.   The TAM Predictor has a 96% accuracy. 

No comments:

Post a Comment


The commentary provided on and "The American Maverick Radio Show" are the remarks on behalf of Maverick Media and personal expression of Flint Engleman. In no way, are these statements on behalf of any other organization or political entity.

Subscribe to The American Maverick Blog for Free...

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner