Tuesday, March 20, 2012

TAM PREDICTOR SELECTS ROMNEY FOR ILLINOIS

The much hyped Illinois primary is here.  The media from CNN to Fox have been continually pumping up the supposed importance of the outcome.  And, the reported swing in nomination momentum for the victor.

Looking at the polling there is not much doubt as to who will win Illinois.  Polling firms such as Rasmussen and PPP all indicate Mitt Romney has a definite Illinois victory on the horizon.  Looking farther back at the data, the only other candidate that held a lead was Newt Gingrich back in August of 2011.  

The American Maverick (TAM) Predictor selects Mitt Romney to win the Illinois primary.  Based on polling data TAM predicts the margin of victory for Romney will be 12%.  Here is the TAM Predictor call for Illinois:

  1. Mitt Romney +15%
  2. Rick Santorum
  3. Newt Gingrich
  4. Ron Paul
The TAM Predictor is a election prediction feature for upcoming elections, primaries, caucuses, etc.  Real polling data is used to determine an aggregate score to select a candidates outcome.  The TAM Predictor only uses polling data produced within 36 hours of the election.  This methodology is key in identifying momentum of a candidate in the final days.   The TAM Predictor has a 94% accuracy.

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