Sunday, March 4, 2012

SUPER TUESDAY TAM PREDICTIONS

This is it!  Super Tuesday is here.  Ten states will hold their Presidential nominee primary or caucuses on Tuesday, March 6th.  This is the single most delegate rich day for the candidates with over 400 delegates available. 1,144 delegates are necessary to secure the Presidential nomination.

So here we go with the Super Tuesday TAM (The American Maverick) Predictor!  First of all, there are ten states, so we will predict just the winner and projected margin.  Secondly, four states do not have any polling data for the media to review.  The states:  Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota and Vermont.  So, we will make the TAM Predictions for 6 of the 10 states.  

After reviewing data from six states I will summarize the trends.  Santorum is trending down in most all states.  Romney and Newt Gingrich are trending up.  Ron Paul is maintaining his percentages.  

Some news-Santorum failed to properly file in several counties in Ohio.  Even if he were to win in Ohio, Santorum would not receive the most delegates.  Also, Ron Paul has had operations in Alaska, North Dakota and Idaho.  I would not be surprised if Ron made a move for these delegates.

Now the official Super Tuesday TAM Predictions!  By state with the projected winner and base margin of victory.

Georgia:  All Newt Gingrich!  +14% margin.  Would not be surprised if he won by 20%+.
Massachusetts:  Mitt Romney by +25%.  It's his true home state where he was Governor.
Ohio:  Very hard call.  Mitt Romney by 1%.  Santorum's poll momentum slowed to a halt.
Oklahoma:  Rick Santorum by 7%.  Newt closing in on Santorum, late.
Tennessee:  Hard call with Romney and Gingrich on the move.  Call it for Santorum by +1%.
Virginia:  Romney by +22%.  Only Ron Paul on the ticket.  Santorum and Gingrich failed to qualify.

Breaking side calls>>>  Romney projected to win Vermont and Idaho as well.  Margin of victory will be higher in Vermont, but close in Idaho.

The TAM Predictor is a election prediction feature for upcoming elections, primaries, caucuses, etc.  Real polling data is used to determine an aggregate score to select a candidates outcome.  The TAM Predictor only uses polling data produced within 36 hours of the election.  This methodology is key in identifying momentum of a candidate in the final days.  The TAM Predictor has a 90% forecast accuracy.

May the election Gods have mercy on our accuracy!

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