Thursday, March 22, 2012

REALITY OF THE GOP NOMINATION PROCESS

After observing the back and forth for individuals hope for their candidate to achieve the Republican Presidential nomination, a stroke of reality needs to be interjected into the fray.  This is not to stifle one's passion for a candidate, just a hard look at the process.

It's the reality of the numbers.  The candidate seeking to win the Republican nomination must earn at least 1,144 delegates.  Currently, Mitt Romney leads with 563.  Followed by Rick Santorum with 246, Newt Gingrich with 141 and Ron Paul with 66 delegates.  

Now let's dissect the math behind the process.  Mathematically, Ron Paul has been eliminated.  There's not enough delegates left for him to win.  Newt is very close to being eliminated.  Newt would need to win 90% of all remaining delegates to win the nomination.  Rick Santorum needs to win 66% of all remaining.  And, Mitt Romney remains the front runner only needing 43% of the rest of the delegates.

As you can see, the delegate count now only leaves Santorum and Romney as the only viable candidates in position to win the nomination.  The numbers also indicate the argument that a brokered convention will occur for the RNC is now mute as well.  There will be a definite candidate prior to the convention.  It will just take longer than Republican voters are accustomed too.

We've reviewed the numbers.  Let's look at the prognosis for a nominee.  I'll call it like the polling indicates for all remaining states.  (Yes, I spent several hours perusing the numbers from Rasmussen, RCP, PPP, and others.)  Santorum is in position to win 6 remaining states.  Including:  Louisiana, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nebraska and Arkansas.  Romney is in position to take all remaining states based on the polling data.  This includes large states such as New York, California, Oregon and all the states in the northeast except Pennsylvania (Santorum's home state).  In addition, the more states after April 1st are winner takes all primaries.  Which means larger blocks of delegates for the candidates.  The RNC's proportional delegate allocation mandate had a major role in drawing out this year's the nomination process.

Bottom line, the numbers, the momentum, the polling and the timeline all point to Mitt Romney as the Republican nominee.  At the latest, he will most likely achieve the nomination by California's primary on June 5th.  Santorum is burning through a lot of money and lacks a true state by state political organization.  At this point, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul are just along for the publicity.

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