Sunday, February 26, 2012

TAM PREDICTOR SELECTS ROMNEY TO WIN MICHIGAN & ARIZONA

The infamous TAM (The American Maverick) Predictor is ready to call the upcoming winners for the Arizona and Michigan primaries.  Overall, the TAM Predictor selects GOP Presidential candidate to win both primaries on Tuesday.

For Michigan, Santorum's momentum ran out, and Mitt Romney was able to gain considerable traction.  The turn occurred early last week with the media focus on Santorum's social right positions.  His momentum in the polling further dipped following last week's GOP debate on CNN.  Romney is selected by the TAM Predictor to win Michigan by 4% over Santorum.  Here's the call for Michigan:
  1. Mitt Romney (+4%)
  2. Rick Santorum
  3. Ron Paul
  4. Newt Gingrich
Arizona will bring a clear win for Mitt Romney.  Romney has dominated all polling in Arizona for months.  Santorum and Gingrich had a slight swing within the last 45 days, but Romney gained distance since the debate in Arizona.  The TAM Predictor selects Mitt Romney to win the Arizona primary by at least 6% over Rick Santorum.  Here's the Arizona TAM selections:
  1. Mitt Romney (+6%)
  2. Rick Santorum 
  3. Newt Gingrich 
  4. Ron Paul
Both Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich polling in Arizona and Michigan were fairly low.  Ron Paul may squeeze out third place over Newt in Michigan.  Newt is stronger in Arizona.  Polling suggests Gingrich will capture third place in Arizona with about 16% of the vote.

The TAM Predictor is a election prediction feature for upcoming elections, primaries, caucuses, etc.  Real polling data is used to determine an aggregate score to select a candidates outcome.  The TAM Predictor only uses polling data produced within 36 hours of the election.  This methodology is key in identifying momentum of a candidate in the final days.  

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