Monday, February 6, 2012

TAM PREDICTOR FOR FEB 7 GOP RACES

THE AMERICAN MAVERICK PREDICTOR
The American Maverick (TAM) Predictor accurately predicted all four places for Saturday's Nevada GOP caucus.  So far, the TAM Predictor has correctly chosen all primaries this year!  To predict the winner, TAM uses actual polling data received within 36 hours of each election.  This helps reflect trends in the last days prior to a primary/caucus.  Sources include Real Clear Politics and other polling services available.

Now on to the Tuesday, February 7th GOP contests.  Margins of victory are now much tighter.  Especially in Minnesota and Missouri.  Overall trends identified:  Romney edging higher, Santorum surging, Gingrich dropping and Paul inching upwards.

For Colorado, Romney is predicted to win at least by 10%.  Santorum overtakes Gingrich.  Here's the candidate breakdown:
  1. Mitt Romney
  2. Rick Santorum
  3. Newt Gingrich
  4. Ron Paul
For Minnesota, this is a true toss up situation.  Santorum is definitely surging.  If we had to make a choice, we'll go with Romney.  He won Minnesota by 19% in 2008.  The surprising factor is the plummet of Gingrich to fourth.  Here's our call:
  1. Mitt Romney
  2. Rick Santorum
  3. Ron Paul
  4. Newt Gingrich
Missouri also holds their primary on Tuesday.  Our call is Romney by 10%.  Again, Santorum is rising in another primary state.  Note: This is a state which Gingrich failed to make the ballot.  Here's the prediction for Missouri:
  1. Mitt Romney
  2. Rick Santorum
  3. Ron Paul
The TAM candidate predictor is a compilation of key polling data acquired within the last three days prior to a election.  The American Maverick (TAM) is a dynamic news and politics blog providing straightforward commentary on key issues facing America.

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