Mitt Romney is the choice by The American Maverick to win the Florida GOP primary. And, win convincingly too! Based on the most recent polling received only within the last 36 hours from Rasmussen and NBC polling, Romney has an increasing margin for victory. Rasmussen's polling data indicates a 16% margin versus Gingrich with Santorum and Paul farther back. A NBC poll released Sunday concurred with a 15% lead for Romney.
What happened after last week's candidate debates? Gingrich's trend declined markedly after the Thursday debate. Romney realized a nice bump from Monday's NBC debate and a larger spike after Thursday. Rick Santorum noticed a subtle increase after his strong performance on CNN. Santorum appears to have captured approximately 3% away from Gingrich with a trend of 12% of voters. Ron Paul remains flat at around 9-10 of likely voters.
Now for The American Maverick's formal prediction for Tuesday's Florida primary. The TAM Predictor chooses Mitt Romney to win with at least an 8% margin over Newt Gingrich. The Predictor has reduced the margin from the Rasmussen and NBC data (14-16%) above to account for some impact with the Herman Cain endorsement of Gingrich on Saturday night. Here is the call:
1. Mitt Romney
2. Newt Gingrich
3. Rick Santorum
4. Ron Paul
Again, the late breaking impact of Herman Cain endorsement of Gingrich and the news of Rick Santorum heading home to care for his child in Philadelphia, could both weigh on the final results.
The TAM candidate predictor is a compilation of key polling data acquired within the last three days prior to a election. TAM, The American Maverick, is a dynamic news and politics blog providing straightforward commentary on key issues facing America.