The American Maverick news & politics blog's aggregate predictor selects Newt Gingrich to win the South Carolina primary this Saturday. The TAM (The American Maverick) Predictor uses actual aggregate data from top polls collected within three days of a primary or caucus.
Newt Gingrich accumulated very strong and unrelenting momentum following the first South Carolina debate by Fox News on Monday. Gingrich's poll swing increased by an average of +9% from Monday to Wednesday. Trumping Mitt Romney's lead by 3%. Recent polls by Rasmussen and Insider Advantage of likely voters shows Gingrich leading just above the margin of error.
At this point, the effect of the expose' on Newt Gingrich's break up of his second marriage will be hard to factor with close proximity to Saturday's primary. Mitt Romney has a substantial campaign ground force in South Carolina that will make the final result very close. The TAM Predictor selects Newt Gingrich to win versus Mitt Romney by 3-6%. Here are our overall selections for the South Carolina Republican primary:
1. Newt Gingrich
2. Mitt Romney
3. Ron Paul
Ron Paul sustained his polling with 15% average of likely voters. Rick Santorum has not realized any short term bounce from his news in Iowa or his claim on the social right. Rick Perry's quick departure will be of little impact, regardless of his endorsement of Newt Gingrich. Perry was only pulling about 2-3% of voters.