Tuesday, October 21, 2014

TAM PREDICTOR: WEEKLY U.S. SENATE BATTLE FORECAST

This is the October 21-28, weekly update for The American Maverick (TAM) Predictor's latest forecast for the battle for control of the United States Senate. 

Quick trend run down for this week...  Tillis gains ground on Hagan in Carolina, Roberts equalizes Orman in Kansas, and Georgia appears at risk for the Republicans.  Overall, Republicans are on track to take control of the U.S. Senate with under 13 days left till Election Day.


The American Maverick Predictor
2014 U.S. Senate Election Weekly Forecast
Week of October 21st | 13 Days Till the Election

67% Chance the Republicans will control the majority of the U.S. Senate
33% Chance the Democrats will control the majority of the U.S. Senate

Projected Senate Seat Trend as of October 21, 2014
Republican Seats 52 | Democrat Seats 48


Top 10 Key Senate Races to Watch
 *Incumbent | % Chance of Victory for Party Candidate

                         Alaska                           Begich* vs Sullivan         77% Republican
                         Arkansas                       Pryor* vs Cotton             79% Republican
                         Colorado                       Udall* vs Gardner           69% Republican
                         Georgia                         Nunn vs Perdue              Toss-up
                         Iowa                              Braley vs Ernst               64% Republican
                         Kansas                          Orman vs Roberts*          52% Independent
                         Louisiana                      Landrieu* vs Cassidy       78% Republican
                         North Carolina              Hagan* vs Tillis               65% Democrat
                         New Hampshire            Shaheen* vs Brown         79% Democrat
                         Virginia                        Warner* vs Gillespie        88% Democrat


The TAM Predictor is a election prediction feature for upcoming elections, primaries, caucuses, etc.  Polling data is used to determine an aggregate score to select a candidates outcome.  The TAM Predictor only uses the most current polling data.  This methodology is key in identifying trends for candidates.  The TAM Predictor has a 94% forecast accuracy.

With Election Day approaching, the TAM Predictor will provide weekly updates about trends regarding control of the Senate as well as progress of the top 10 races that will most likely determine the balance of power.  A final call of the election will be published prior to Election Day, November 4th.

Our forecast is calculated from solid sources.  We aggregate data from the most recent polls in key states, track trends that indicate strength/weakness of a candidate, and build in intangibles, where appropriate.  One key component is we do not use old data that can distort breaking trends.  Sources used for the 2014 Senate election include:  Real Clear Politics, New York Times, WaPo Election Lab, Cook Political Report, and the famed, 538 Election Model.

Friday, October 17, 2014

AUTHOR DAVID LIMBAUGH, SUNDAY ON THE AMERICAN MAVERICK SHOW

Another great episode of The American Maverick Show is coming up this Sunday at 8:00pm Eastern on News Talk 107.5 FM WCHV.  Host Flint Engleman delivers striking conservative commentary, dynamic guest interviews and news beyond the headlines.

Connect with The American Maverick!  Check out our acclaimed blog TheAmericanMaverick.com and Follow us on Twitter @AmericanMav.
Author David Limbaugh

This week's guests...

Author David Limbaugh.  Yes, the brother of Rush Limbaugh.  He talks about his new New York Times best seller "Jesus on Trial".

TPUSA's Phillip Stucky,  We welcome Phillip to talk about the great work of Turning Point USA.  We discuss how the policies of the left have caused generational theft.

The American Maverick Show is a Top 5 show on our national affiliate Red State Talk Radio Network.  Our show is broadcast live from the studios of WCHV in Charlottesville, Virginia.

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

TIME FOR AMERICA TO STAND STRONG AGAINST EBOLA

The American Maverick is not in the business of being an alarmist.  Yet, the severity of the Ebola virus combined with the slow response by the White House and CDC, creates a very disconcerting scenario for our country to assure our citizens are protected from a mass outbreak.

Ebola can be a deadly virus.  There is no debate.  Health care experts state the havoc Ebola injects on the human body can be just as traumatic as experiencing sudden death.

A recent advisory by the World Health Organization (WHO),  the world's chief watchdog on mass outbreaks, presents troubling information.  The WHO reports that they project 10,000 humans to contract Ebola per week for at least the next two months in Africa.  So, over the next two months there could be 80,000 humans carrying Ebola.  To date, over 4,000 people have died from Ebola during this outbreak.

Sounds pretty scary.  It is.  And, the public needs to be keenly aware of how this could potentially balloon to a larger health threat.

The lack of decisiveness and prompt action by Barack Obama and the Center for Disease control is of great concern.  And, unless firm action happens soon, America may be facing the largest threat to life since the 1957 Asian flu or the Polio epidemic of 1952.

Obama has slow rolled decisions throughout his six years as President.  He may be able to get by with delaying a decision on troop deployments, how to respond to a diplomatic issue or put off the Keystone XL pipeline.  However, all politics aside, when you are dealing with a highly contagious and deadly virus; swift, decisive action must be taken.

One thing that is a must when fighting such an epidemic is to act quickly.  A virus like Ebola, if not rapidly contained, can spread without mercy throughout a population.  Secondly, government should take all necessary means to contain and reduce exposure of the population to the source of the contagion (Africa). 

These key actions need to take place by U.S. officials:
  1. Stop all incoming flights from the Ebola epidemic countries.  Many other countries have already done this.  This is the first act to stop those who do have the virus, yet may not physically have developed the symptoms of Ebola.  Ebola has an incubation period of 2-21 days.  So, a person coming from Liberia through a TSA screening without any symptoms including high temperature, may be contagious in just a matter of time.
  2. Strengthen screening of possible Ebola patients.  After all flights are halted from those countries, enhanced screening of all passengers who had connecting flights from epidemic countries must be completed.  First, reinforce all major airports with military physicians, epidemiologists and trained medical personnel, to work directly with TSA agents as they screen passengers for contagion.  TSA agents are not trained to recognize symptoms or ask probing questions to identify risky passengers.  Secondly, protocols must be enacted to allow authorities to hold symptomatic passengers in isolation until the incubation period has passed.  
  3. Begin screening at other U.S. points of entry.  Individuals entering the United States via boat from Africa should be screened.  In addition, Customs and Border officials should enact screening protocols to assure immigrants are not carrying the virus.
  4. Halt the deployment of U.S. military to Ebola countries.  Obama is sending over 4,000 soldiers to assist in Africa.  As of today 450 servicemen and women are in Ebola hot spots in Africa.  The government should assure these brave soldiers have all of the protective gear and supplies to survive.  This deployment should be stopped and those troops should be deployed to reinforce our border from walking contagion.  The WHO stated the death rate for humans contracting Ebola in Africa to be 70%.
  5. Accelerate development of Ebola vaccine.  The WHO reports a vaccine may not be ready for Ebola until January.  U.S. officials should work to waive bureaucratic red tape that typically delays American vaccine production.  Since America has the best companies to produce such a vaccine, they should be granted explicit permission to ramp up high volumes of vaccine.
It is always better to be informed and decisive, than to be facing a no win scenario.  That is why the White House, CDC and NIH need to get beyond the obsession with politics and remember that we are all humans.  Because Ebola does not care what party you vote for.

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

TAM PREDICTOR: WEEKLY U.S. SENATE BATTLE UPDATE

This is the October 14-21, weekly update for The American Maverick (TAM) Predictor's latest forecast for the battle for control of the United States Senate. 

Quick trend run down for this week...  Orman continues slight lead over incumbent Roberts in Kansas,  Landrieu losing in Louisiana, race tightening in North Carolina.  Overall, Republicans are on track to take control of the U.S. Senate with under 20 days left till Election Day.

The American Maverick Predictor
2014 U.S. Senate Election Weekly Forecast
Week of October 14th | 20 Days Till the Election

63% Chance the Republicans will control the majority of the U.S. Senate
37% Chance the Democrats will control the majority of the U.S. Senate

Projected Senate Seat Trend as of October 14, 2014
Republican Seats 52 | Democrat Seats 48

Top 10 Key Senate Races to Watch
 *Incumbent | % Chance of Victory for Party Candidate

                         Alaska                           Begich* vs Sullivan         75% Republican
                         Arkansas                       Pryor* vs Cotton             75% Republican
                         Colorado                       Udall* vs Gardner           64% Republican
                         Georgia                         Nunn vs Perdue              71% Republican
                         Iowa                              Braley vs Ernst               63% Republican
                         Kansas                          Orman vs Roberts*          60% Independent
                         Louisiana                      Landrieu* vs Cassidy       77% Republican
                         North Carolina              Hagan* vs Tillis               67% Democrat
                         New Hampshire            Shaheen* vs Brown         82% Democrat
                         Virginia                        Warner* vs Gillespie        88% Democrat


With Election Day approaching, the TAM Predictor will provide weekly updates about trends regarding control of the Senate as well as progress of the top 10 races that will most likely determine the balance of power.  A final call of the election will be published prior to Election Day, November 4th.

Our forecast is calculated from solid sources.  We aggregate data from the most recent polls in key states, track trends that indicate strength/weakness of a candidate, and build in intangibles, where appropriate.  One key component is we do not use old data that can distort breaking trends.  Sources used for the 2014 Senate election include:  Real Clear Politics, New York Times, WaPo Election Lab, Cook Political Report, and the famed, 538 Election Model.

The TAM Predictor is a election prediction feature for upcoming elections, primaries, caucuses, etc.  Polling data is used to determine an aggregate score to select a candidates outcome.  The TAM Predictor only uses the most current polling data.  This methodology is key in identifying trends for candidates.  The TAM Predictor has a 94% forecast accuracy.

Sunday, October 12, 2014

THREE KEY REASONS REPUBLICANS WILL WIN THE SENATE

As pundits pontificate their predictions for who will control the United States Senate, many wonder if polling tells the whole story.  Well, when you look at the broader picture of the state of the country and issues in respective states, there are three key factors that will give the Republicans the edge for victory.

Polling numbers from battleground states provide a snapshot of how the candidates are connecting with voters.  When you look at many of the key races for Senate, most of the vital Senate seats are now within the margin of error,  Some examples of races now in limbo with polling stats:  North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia, Alaska, Louisiana, Arkansas, Kansas and a few others.  These Senate races are clear toss up states according to most polling data.

So, what could possibly give the Republicans an advantage on November 4th?

Three key factors are bolstering the GOP as we head to Election Day.  Including:  Obama's high negative ratings, down ballot candidates performance and individuals impacted by the left.

Obama's High Negatives.  Obama now has the lowest Presidential approval rating in the modern era.  Lower than George W. Bush and equal to the term of Jimmy Carter.  American's have had it with this administration.  Two poll results released recently indicate Obama's approval has fallen to 39% among voters.  (Reuters/Ipsos and Fox News)  The last time Obama had a 50% approval rating was May of 2013.

In key Senate battleground states, his negative numbers will directly impact Democrat candidates.  And,  for those Democrat incumbents like Landrieu, Hagan, Udall and others, the retribution of the voters will be amplified on Election Day.  Democrat candidates have the stigma and, for most, a voting record in support of Obamacare, immigration amnesty, trillions in national debt, and anti-gun legislation.

Battleground Down Ballot Candidates.  For elections, many times the top of the ticket, (like a popular Presidential or Senate candidate), can help party candidates that are down ticket, (like a Congressman or Governor), bring out their base of voters for victory.  This can happen the opposite way as well.  For instance, a state that has a popular Republican running for Governor can help bolster turn out for the Republican Senate candidate.  An example is Iowa.  Popular Republican, incumbent Governor Terry Branstad has a firm lead in polling over the Democrat in Iowa.  The voters who are passionate about Branstad will more than likely vote for Joni Ernst who is on the statewide ballot.  Thus, giving Ernst a boost on Election Day.  There are several other scenarios where other Republican candidates can reinforce statewide turnout that will favor the GOP Senate candidate.

Citizens Negatively Impacted by the Left.  It is one thing to talk about how Obama's policies have hurt individuals.  It is another to be the American that was directly affected.  Do not forget the million Americans that had their health care insurance cancelled due to Obamacare.  Do not forget the tens of millions of Americans now paying twice as much for health care.  Do not forget the businessmen/women who have been taxed and regulated out of business.  Do not forget the hundreds of thousands of "twenty somethings" that campaigned for Obama's hope and change in 2008.  And, now, are forced to live with their folks since they cannot find a decent job.  Enduring the negative impact of big government is a real motivator for voters.  This will be the dark horse factor that may turn the tide against the Democrats at the ballot box.

When you consider this is the first time voters will have a chance to push back against Obama, Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi since 2012, this election looks a whole lot more promising.  

Now is the time to stand tall for America, our Constitution and founding principles.  With a solid turnout of the right on Election Day, we can send a message and candidate to Washington that we're tired of Barack and Harry and we're not going to take it anymore.

Tuesday, October 7, 2014

MILLIONAIRE MARK WARNER EXPOSED

U.S. Senator Mark Warner is not your typical politician.  Warner is at the top of the pecking order for the Democrat party.  He is a powerful, rich henchman of the left.  And, if you are a Virginian you need to wake up and remove Millionaire Mark on November 4th.

Let's clear up one blazing misnomer.  Mark Warner is not a moderate.  He is a hard line leftist that votes 97% of the time with Obama and Harry Reid.  For the past six years, he has been an integral part of the entire Obama, Reid & Pelosi machine to reverse America's founding principles and stall economic freedom.

Let's check Mark's voting record.  Exhibit A is his deciding Senate vote to approve the "Affordable" Care Act.  Warner cast the 60th vote for Obamacare on Christmas Eve 2009 when all of America was enjoying the holidays.  

Here's some other key votes by Mark Warner to be aware of:
  • For the extension of the Patriot Act, which extended surveillance of over 330 million American citizens.
  • Multiple votes to extend the nation's debt limit by $7-Trillion.  Impacting prosperity of generations of Americans.  National debt climbing now over $17.6 Trillion.
  • For the Dodd-Frank Act, which stifled bank credit for millions of citizens and businesses during one of America's worst recessions.
  • For the Farm Act, which continues agri-cronyism via the Pigford scandal as exposed by Breitbart in 2012.
  • For the budget and tax deal of 2013, which enacted the largest tax increase in American history.
How about a shakedown of Warner's "humble" life?  Let's be clear Mark Warner is obnoxiously rich.  Not from the hard work of owning and operating a business from the ground up.  He is a corporatist, a true one-percenter.  The kind of squaller the left supposedly opposes.  Warner made his millions in wealth off of a mega deal when Nextel  Corporation was sold to Sprint in early 2000's.  In fact, his net worth is $257 million - ranking as the most wealthy Democrat in Congress.  Even beyond Senator Jay Rockefeller.

Some cronyism is subtle.  And, the rest is blatantly obvious.  Who gives the big bucks to influence Warner?  Mega donors include JP Morgan, the Blackstone Group, Dominion Resources, Altria, and Columbia Capital.  Warner violated a Senate conflict of interest law by buying Black Rock equity shares in 2011.


Scandals for Mark Warner?  Absolutely!  Warner was implicated in the IRS scandal using his influence to target conservative groups as exposed by Judicial Watch.  Warner also used his power to advance VISA requests through DHS for former GreenTech CEO and Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe.  Do not forget Air Warner!  A recent Washington Post investigation uncovered Mark Warner for abusing his office by using chartered planes to visit constituents in Virginia.  Warner's jet set three days cost taxpayers $8535.  Democrat Senator Tim Kaine made the same trip by auto for $690.  And, let's not forget the recent revelation that Senator Warner was involved with potential bribery in pressuring former Virginia state Senator Phillip Puckett to delay retirement so the Democrats could force Medicaid expansion.

Tit-for-tat, quid pro quo, that is the language of current U.S. Senator Mark Warner of Virginia.  He's a back-scratcher and henchman for Harry Reid and the Democrat establishment.  Warner lured Democrat Senators into votes they would have otherwise flatly resisted.  And, he's outmaneuvered young Republicans like Marco Rubio into supporting Amnesty for illegal aliens and the government take over of student loans.

When the rubber hits the road, Mark Warner is all about power and not about Virginia.  He caters to Virginia voters with slick press conferences and hokey campaign events.  Yet, it's all smoke and mirrors.  His real focus is advancing his power grab on Capitol Hill and assuming his posture as the Democrat's poster boy for 2020 and beyond.

Now is the time for Virginia to stand strong.  And, make a positive impact on the direction of our Republic. 

Virginians can put a stop to the cronyism, power trip and left wing voting by Mark Warner.   And, end the maniacal rule of Majority Leader Harry Reid in the Senate.  

Your vote opposing Warner will remove power from Harry Reid.  Without Warner and a hand full of Democrats, Harry Reid will lose control of the U.S. Senate.  Plus, your vote against Warner will allow Congress to stand united versus the detrimental policies and executive orders during the last two years of Obama's Presidency.

Stand against government domination, and stand for liberty, economic freedom and the future of America on November 4th. 

TAM PREDICTOR: WEEKLY U.S. SENATE BATTLE UPDATE

This is the October 6-12, weekly update for The American Maverick (TAM) Predictor's latest forecast for the battle for control of the United States Senate. 

Quick trend run down for this week...  Hagan loses ground in North Carolina, Independent Orman strengthens lead in Kansas, Warner lead stagnates in Virginia.  Overall, Republicans are solidifying ground in key races with under 28 days left till Election Day.

With Election Day approaching, the TAM Predictor will provide weekly updates about trends regarding control of the Senate as well as progress of the top 10 races that will most likely determine the balance of power.  A final call of the election will be published prior to Election Day, November 4th.
The American Maverick Predictor
2014 U.S. Senate Election Weekly Forecast
Week of October 6th | 28 Days Till the Election

61% Chance the Republicans will control the majority of the U.S. Senate
39% Chance the Democrats will control the majority of the U.S. Senate

Projected Senate Seat Trend as of October 6, 2014
Republican Seats 52 | Democrat Seats 48

Top 10 Key Senate Races to Watch
 *Incumbent | % Chance of Victory for Party Candidate

                         Alaska                           Begich* vs Sullivan         71% Republican
                         Arkansas                       Pryor* vs Cotton             74% Republican
                         Colorado                       Udall* vs Gardner           55% Republican
                         Georgia                         Nunn vs Perdue              70% Republican
                         Iowa                              Braley vs Ernst               62% Republican
                         Kansas                          Orman vs Roberts*          Toss-up
                         Louisiana                      Landrieu* vs Cassidy       65% Republican
                         North Carolina              Hagan* vs Tillis               62% Democrat
                         New Hampshire            Shaheen* vs Brown         71% Democrat
                         Virginia                        Warner* vs Gillespie        84% Democrat


Our forecast is calculated from solid sources.  We aggregate data from the most recent polls in key states, track trends that indicate strength/weakness of a candidate, and build in intangibles, where appropriate.  One key component is we do not use old data that can distort breaking trends.  Sources used for the 2014 Senate election include:  Real Clear Politics, New York Times, WaPo Election Lab, Cook Political Report, and the famed, 538 Election Model.

The TAM Predictor is a election prediction feature for upcoming elections, primaries, caucuses, etc.  Polling data is used to determine an aggregate score to select a candidates outcome.  The TAM Predictor only uses the most current polling data.  This methodology is key in identifying trends for candidates.  The TAM Predictor has a 94% forecast accuracy.

Monday, October 6, 2014

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Sunday, October 5, 2014

RADICAL LEFTIST VAN JONES TO SPEAK AT VIRGINIA COLLEGE

Exclusive. Former Obama administration official, Van Jones, is scheduled to speak at a Virginia college.  Liberal arts institution Bridgewater College is hosting Jones for a public speech on campus on Monday, October 6th.  

The college touts Van Jones current credentials as the reason for his appearance.  First, his position as a contributor with Cable News Network (CNN).  Then, clearly ignores Van Jones hard radical left background.  Here's the rosy bio painted on Bridgewater College's website:
"Van Jones is president and co-founder of Rebuild the Dream, a platform for bottom-up, people-powered innovations to help fix the U.S. economy. He is also the founder of Green For All, a national organization working to get green jobs to disadvantaged communities."
Now the hard reality about Van Jones.  He is one of the most radical, leftist activists in America.  If there was a ranking, he would be in the top 10 of all known hard core leftists.  His background ranges from numerous arrests for public unrest to documented member of Communist Party USA to founder of radical activist group called STORM.  By the way, STORM took an active role in domestic property damage in numerous Occupy protests in California, New York and other locations.  Jones is associated with several other leftist groups funded by billionaire, socialist George Soros.

In addition, in September of 2009, Van Jones resigned as Barack Obama's "Green Czar" after uttering several radical statements he made in a official capacity with the White House.  Public pressure built tremendously for Jones to be fired based on his statements and highly controversial background.

Outrage simply put.  Is there no institution that will stop the radical left from spreading their message?

For those in Virginia that would like to be indoctrinated by an authentic far left radical, the speech is open to the public.  Here's the link:  http://www.bridgewater.edu/events-news/events-convocations/eventdetail/297/-/van-jones-co-host-of-cnn-s-crossfire 

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

TAM PREDICTOR RETURNS FOR 2014 U.S. SENATE BATTLE

The American Maverick (TAM) Predictor returns to forecast the battle for control of the United States Senate.  The TAM Predictor has a known accuracy of 94% for calling election results since 2012.

The big question... Will the American voter choose to continue with Harry Reid and the Democrats in control of the Senate.  Or, will there be a mid-term shake up with the Republicans taking the Senate lead for the last two years of the Obama Presidency?

With Election Day approaching, the TAM Predictor will provide weekly updates about trends regarding control of the Senate as well as progress of the top 10 races that will most likely determine the balance of power.  A final call of the election will be published prior to Election Day, November 4th.

Our forecast is calculated from solid sources.  We aggregate data from the most recent polls in key states, track trends that indicate strength/weakness of a candidate, and build in intangibles, where appropriate.  One key component is we do not use old data that can distort breaking trends.  Sources used for the 2014 Senate election include:  Real Clear Politics, New York Times, WaPo Election Lab, Cook Political Report, and the famed, 538 Election Model.


The American Maverick Predictor
2014 U.S. Senate Election Weekly Forecast
Week of September 28th | 36 Days Till the Election

64% Chance the Republicans will control the majority of the U.S. Senate
36% Chance the Democrats will control the majority of the U.S. Senate

Projected Senate Seat Trend as of September 28, 2014
Republican Seats 52 | Democrat Seats 48

Top 10 Key Senate Races to Watch
 *Incumbent | % Chance of Victory for Party Candidate

                         Alaska                           Begich* vs Sullivan         68% Republican
                         Arkansas                       Pryor* vs Cotton             73% Republican
                         Colorado                       Udall* vs Gardner           61% Republican
                         Georgia                         Nunn vs Perdue              70% Republican
                         Iowa                              Braley vs Ernst               60% Republican
                         Kansas                          Orman vs Roberts*          58% Republican
                         Louisiana                      Landrieu* vs Cassidy       58% Republican
                         North Carolina              Hagan* vs Tillis               54% Democrat
                         New Hampshire            Shaheen* vs Brown         69% Democrat
                         Virginia                        Warner* vs Gillespie        80% Democrat

The TAM Predictor is a election prediction feature for upcoming elections, primaries, caucuses, etc.  Polling data is used to determine an aggregate score to select a candidates outcome.  The TAM Predictor only uses the most current polling data.  This methodology is key in identifying trends for candidates.  The TAM Predictor has a 94% forecast accuracy.

AMERICAN MAVERICK COMMENTARY DISCLAIMER...

The commentary provided on TheAmericanMaverick.com and "The American Maverick Radio Show" are the remarks on behalf of Maverick Media and personal expression of Flint Engleman. In no way, are these statements on behalf of any other organization or political entity.

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